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I called it -- but then again, I didn't

Win some, lose some.

The primary was certified today. On that subject, this snippet from Jim Camden of the Spokane Spokesman-Review made me grin:

Reed, a big fan of mail-in voting, noted that mail vote turn out (or maybe that's turn in) was 47 percent, while poll site voting in King and Pierce counties was 16 percent.

And the big winner?

According to Reed, it's the top two primary, which he said didn't draw any complaints from voters in his office or, apparently, at county elections offices.

Of course, that pretty much ignores the complaining the political parties did about it for about six months.

On the Sunday before the primary, I predicted:

Meanwhile, despite his premature optimism, a likely big winner this election will be...Sam Reed. Reed is well-positioned to potentially approach 60 percent in the primary. Unlike his two fellow Republican incumbents, he lacks a serious Democratic challenger (McKenna) and/or a scandal (Sutherland). Also look for Reed to trumpet the vote-by-mail system, as he always does, this time to the direct ire of Democratic opponent Jason Osgood.

Now, calling Reed's lopsided victory wasn't hard. Nor was predicting the boasting of the vote-by-mail system, which was inevitable. But, together with the fact that I even ended up prescient in parallel structure (big winner), I think I can give myself a point there. 1-0.

On the other hand, I was a little too sarcastic about turnout rates, which Reed claim would hit 45 percent:

I'm loathe to argue with Reed--he does elections for a living. This time, though, beating 2004 may be a challenge. Turnout in the big counties is struggling to hit 20%. Pierce County's historical results indicate that return rates are comparable to 2006, not 2004, and certainly not 1972. Depending on your prediction model, most estimates seem to come down squarely between the mid-30s and low-40s. I'm having trouble seeing 45% without a late burst.

Is one possible? Yes. But Reed's arguments that the Top Two is a uniquely inviting system are unproven. Perhaps there is a reason the Top Two makes people wait to send in their ballots. But I present another scenario. For all the Pick-a-Party grumblings, it made the ballot more streamlined. There were fewer candidates to choose from. In something like choosing to fill out a primary election ballot, I'm guessing that psychology often outweighs principal.

I still maintain that this was a clever bit of top-two marketing, but Reed wasn't so far off the mark. Turnout was 42.6 percent, at the high end of my expectations. Reed may have been far too optimistic about the effect of the new primary system on voting, but he was right to be optimistic about late balloting.

McClatchy announces deep cuts

More bad news for the Pacific Northwest's troubled local newspaper biz. Today, the Times reports that the McClatchy Group is offering buy-outs to at least half the staffers at the Tacoma News Tribune. Staffers at The Olympian (Thurston County) and the Tri-City Herald are being offered similar deals.

Rufus Friday (how's that for a newspaperman's name?) of the Herald says the glass is half full, but just:

Friday said the Herald's advertising, print circulation and online readership are better than some other papers. "We're just not immune to what is happening on the national stage," he said.

On the other hand, the fourth word here is pretty ominous:

Miller said he thinks The Olympian, which has 180 full- and part-time workers, will survive as an independent news voice in the state capital.

David Postman signs off

One of the state's better political bloggers, David Postman, said goodbye today. As David Goldstein points out, Postman is only the latest in a mass exodus of newspaper political reporters. Papers are floundering, and oftentimes low-flash positions like Postman's see retirement pressure. I'm still reeling from the lost of gastro-literate News Tribune food critic Ed Murrieta, myself. Hopefully, the Times won't follow the Tribune's lead on replacing retiring reporters by rotating other staffers. Nancy Leson on campaign finance reform, anyone?

The late ballot effect

For the last few elections, late ballots have tended to benefit Republican candidates. It's a largely unexplored phenomenon. I wish I had more solid access to the state database of whose ballot was received/counted when; it might provide some insight to the underlying demographics.

In any case, it's beginning to get some news print. Peter Callaghan at the News Tribune covered it today in his column. While Some of the explanations were clearly partisan in tilt (Rossi doesn't pay J. Vander Stoep enough), others gave arguments that seemed more solid. Case in point:

Matt Barreto, a University of Washington political science professor, gives credit to Rossi’s TV campaign and the fact that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama was vacationing in the days leading up to our primary, while Republican John McCain was still campaigning.

Also this: “As a general rule, the late votes that come in are not only late deciders in terms of Dem vs. Rep, but late deciders in terms of ‘should I vote.’ The late votes are people who get picked up in the last weekend rush of voter mobilization.”

Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts, who also covers Washington state thanks to overlapping media markets, notes the low turnout in King County (worse news for Rossi than it sounds), but offers this notable caveat:

“Given how set voters are on these two candidates, it is hard to see how either candidate is going to get more than 52 percent or so, unless someone makes a big error that breaks the race open,” Hibbitts wrote.

His theory is supported in the most recent polling, which shows Gregoire with a two-point lead with only 1% undecided.

My favorite explanation easily belongs to "Scoop" progeny Peter Jackson, though:

“Maybe Tuesday voters are too hung over from the weekend and know not what they do.”

Perhaps this will be the Democratic explanation du jour for the abysmal turnout in the University District. For the sake of Christine Gregoire's electoral comfort, she better hope the incoming students get the libations out of their systems by Monday eve.